World's Third Largest Economy
Cyber security threats can have a significant impact on enterprises of all shapes and sizes. In fact, global cyber crime is expected to inflict damage worth £7.5 trillion in 2023, which would make it the world’s third-largest economy if measured as a country.
Increasingly Sophisticated Threats
Cybercriminals will utilize AI and machine learning in 2023 to power more sophisticated phishing campaigns. Cybercriminals will have access to an ever-growing treasure trove of data, from open-source data such as job postings to personal information leaked in data breaches, with which to craft highly targeted spear phishing lures
Cyber Insurance Premiums
In 2022, the rising threat of ransomware attacks led many insurers to raise premiums and reassess coverage. Going into 2023, Lloyd’s of London announced that its insurance policies will no longer cover losses from state-sponsored cyber attacks, effective from March. We can expect these dynamics to heavily impact organisations. Many will find themselves without appropriate coverage and be required to use emergency incident response services outside of their existing arrangements. “The change in cyber insurance policy could also affect government-led attribution of cyber attacks to state entities, which is often a challenging task in itself. All of these factors combined means that if a NotPetya style incident were to occur, the repercussions could be severe.
ICS/SCADA systems are essential to the daily operations of industrial manufacturers. Due to their importance, these systems are a top target for attackers. Yet while the tactics and techniques required to social engineer ICS systems differ from IT, the impact can be even more detrimental — going so far as the possible loss of life. Social engineers are already beginning to advance their techniques and tactics to more successfully gain access to these vulnerable systems. We anticipate social engineering to accelerate — with even more success — in the year ahead.
Hackers for Hire
As operators offer new tools that dramatically lower the barrier of entry for less experienced and less technical cyber criminals, the cyber crime-as-a-service ecosystem may balloon in the year ahead. If the global economy faces a downturn, hackers-for-hire may emerge in search of quick and easy pay. We expect the biggest rise to be across Europe, considering geopolitical tensions and a challenging winter ahead.
MFA & EDR
We expect to see cyber criminals set their sights more specifically on MFA and EDR technologies. With some attackers having succeeded at circumventing non-phishing-resistant MFA this past year — and more organizations relying on it than ever before — this technology will grow as a top target next year. Similarly, adversaries have been honing EDR evasion techniques. We expect to see a massive spike in the number of EDR evasion tools for sale on the dark web.
Cyber criminals look for organizations or industries teetering at the edge and then make their move to tip them over. Last year, we saw that with manufacturing — a strained industry viewed as the backbone of supply chains. With the distinct possibility of a global recession on the horizon, we expect to see ransomware attacks spike in 2023. However, larger organizations in regions heavily impacted during the ransomware boom are the most prepared for this wave after investing time and money in fighting back.
Internet of Things (IoT) adoption has quickly become a business enabler, but it’s also introducing new security challenges for network and security teams alike. Conventional network perimeter defenses and legacy processes are simply not equipped to address the surge of new IoT security issues.
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